From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fed Remains On The Sidelines, Excerpt:
As expected, the Federal Reserve left policy unchanged this month. The statement itself was largely unchanged as well. …
We get two employment reports before the December meeting; for the Fed to stay on the sidelines yet again, we probably need to see both reports come in weak. The first one – for October – comes Friday morning. ADP estimates that private payrolls will be up 147k – not surging, but still easily sufficient for the Fed to justify a rate hike. If this comes to pass, we would probably need a deluge of soft numbers to keep the Fed on hold again.
Bottom Line: Fed is looking past the election to the December meeting for its second move in this rate hike cycle. Probably need some unlikely softer numbers to hold them back again
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, down from 258 thousand the previous week.
• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in orders.
• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.1 from 57.1 in August.