The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
According to Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to continue the acceleration in home price growth they exhibited in August. And after more than two years of steady growth around 5 percent annually, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, just 0.1 percent off those levels, according to today’s data.
The September Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.4 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.3 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent (SA) from July. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5.1 percent between September 2015 and September 2016, and rise 0.4 percent (SA) from August.
Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s August Case-Shiller data release and the September 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 29.
The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same in the September report as in the August report. The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.