From Tim Duy: Are Yellen and Fischer Really Worlds Apart?

Bottom Line: The key debate within the Fed at the moment centers around the need for preemptive rate hikes. The hawks prefer more preemption, the doves favor less. Federal Reserve Lael Brainard pulled the FOMC to the dovish camp, primarily through her influence at Constitution Ave. Yellen is probably somewhat more sympathetic to Brainard than Fischer, but as I said last week, Fischer has moved substantially in Brainard’s direction. It is really the presidents that are on the hawkish side of the aisle. There just isn’t that much space between Yellen and Fischer at the moment.

• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for September. Total housing starts decreased to 1.142 million (SAAR) in August. Single family starts decreased to 722 thousand SAAR in August. The consensus for 1.180 million, up from the August rate.

• During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

• At 9:00 PM ET, the Third Presidential Debate, at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV