The WSJ surveyed 59 “academic, business and financial economists” about the possibility of a recession in the next four years: Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years

The U.S. must face one of two scenarios: Either the next president will face a recession in office, or the U.S. will have the longest economic expansion in its history.

… Economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60%.

That is … a recognition that throughout its history the American economy has never grown for more than a decade without a recession. Over the course of the next four years, something—whether exhaustion of the economy’s cyclical momentum, a policy mistake from the Federal Reserve or some outside shock—could knock the economy off course.

“We do not think expansions die of ‘old age’ but there’s more probability that a shock will hit the U.S. economy further out in the horizon,” said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at investment bank Nomura.

Four years seems like forever and  I usually only forecast out a year or a little more.

Looking back to 2005, I argued the housing bubble – and coming bust – would probably take the economy into recession. However it wasn’t until January 2007 that I predicted a recession (and the recession started in December 2007).  

That was a pretty obvious reason for a recession, and it took almost two years after the housing bust started for the recession to materialize.  I don’t currently see anything that will cause a recession.

I don’t know about the odds in the next four years, but I doubt there will be a recession in 2017 (and 2018 seems unlikely too – but that is still a long time from now).

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/AP362osugJk/a-recession-in-next-four-years.html

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