This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in September.  This is the seventh consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in September were up 6.3% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.2% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 2.2% through July (about a 3.7% annual rate) – slower than in 2015.

September Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Sept-08 6,179 1,041 16.8% 54,4271
Sept-09 7,907 28.0% 2,776 35.1% 38,340 -29.6%
Sept-10 6,762 -14.5% 2,904 42.9% 45,202 17.9%
Sept-11 7,892 16.7% 3,470 44.0% 26,950 -40.4%
Sept-12 6,478 -17.9% 2,849 44.0% 21,703 -19.5%
Sept-13 6,313 -2.5% 2,106 33.4% 23,405 7.8%
Sept-14 6,252 -1.0% 1,609 25.7% 26,492 13.2%
Sept-15 6,980 11.6% 1,573 22.5% 23,396 -11.7%
Sept-16 7,421 6.3% 1,499 20.2% 24,195 3.4%
1 September 2008 probably includes pending listings

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Z62qWvT5kJk/phoenix-real-estate-in-september-sales.html

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