This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in August.  This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 13.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.3% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 1.6% through June (about a 3.2% annual rate) – slower than in 2015.

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Aug-08 5,660 1,004 17.7% 53,5691
Aug-09 8,008 41.5% 2,849 35.6% 38,085 -28.9%
Aug-10 7,358 -8.1% 3,129 42.5% 44,307 16.3%
Aug-11 8,712 18.4% 3,953 45.4% 26,983 -39.1%
Aug-12 7,574 -13.1% 3,382 44.7% 20,934 -22.4%
Aug-13 7,055 -6.9% 2,409 34.1% 21,444 2.4%
Aug-14 6,431 -8.8% 1,621 25.2% 26,138 21.9%
Aug-15 7,023 9.2% 1,588 22.6% 22,554 -13.7%
Aug-16 7,975 13.6% 1,616 20.3% 23,318 3.4%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/PDGlkEwXZLI/phoenix-real-estate-in-august-sales-up.html

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