This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.3% year-over-year in July.  This is the fifth consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were down 1.8% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 19.7% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.3% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 1.5% through May (about a 3.6% annual rate) – slower than in 2015.

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jul-08 5,9741 54,5272
Jul-09 9,095 52.2% 3,269 35.9% 38,024 2
Jul-10 7,101 -21.9% 2,901 40.9% 42,887 12.8%
Jul-11 8,397 18.3% 3,779 45.0% 27,663 -35.5%
Jul-12 7,152 -14.8% 3,214 44.9% 20,384 -26.3%
Jul-13 8,214 14.8% 2,944 35.8% 20,049 -1.6%
Jul-14 6,790 -17.3% 1,681 24.8% 27,081 35.1%
Jul-15 7,915 16.6% 1,731 21.9% 22,940 -15.3%
Jul-16 7,775 -1.8% 1,534 19.7% 23,695 3.3%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/o9oirZotxHA/phoenix-real-estate-in-july-sales-down.html

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