The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
May Case-Shiller data showed modestly slower growth largely in line with expectations, with seasonally adjusted home prices falling for two months in a row on the 10- and 20-city indices – a rare occurrence since the recovery began in earnest. Looking ahead, Zillow’s June Case-Shiller forecast calls for more of the same, with seasonally adjusted prices in the 10- and 20-city indices set to fall for a third straight month, while annual growth stays largely flat.
The June Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.1 percent year-over-year and 0.2 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and to fall 0.2 percent (SA) from May. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between June 2015 and June 2016, and fall 0.1 percent (SA) from May.
Zillow’s June Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s May Case-Shiller data release and the June 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The June Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, August 30.
The year-over-year change for the 20-city index will probably be slightly lower in the June report than in the May report. The change for the National index will probably be about the same.