Here was my FOMC preview: FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Possibly Preparing for September Rate Hike
From Merrill Lynch on the FOMC:
The July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to result in any policy changes by the Fed, in our view. In fact, we do not expect the Fed to give any signals about September or subsequent meetings, maintaining its data dependent approach to a gradual hiking cycle. Markets will likely be looking for any clues of how this week’s meeting will set up Fed policy decisions at subsequent meetings this year. Our base case remains that the Fed will next hike in December, but a September move cannot be completely ruled out. We believe the bar to hike then, however, is relatively high: the US activity data would need to remain solid, inflation indicators generally would need to point higher, and global risks would have to settle down to a dull rumble.
Our base case of a more optimistic tone to the July statement, given better data on net, should lead at most to a modest increase in market-implied probabilities of hikes this year. More substantive language changes are unlikely, in our view, but would be more market moving if they occur. Perhaps the biggest risk to market pricing will come not from this week’s statement, but from the minutes in three weeks’ time. Recall the sharp market reaction when the April minutes revealed significant support on the FOMC for a possible June rate hike. There is the potential for a similarly surprising amount of FOMC interest in a September hike this time around.
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.3% decrease in durable goods orders.
• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in the index.
• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change in policy is expected at this meeting.