This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 6.5% year-over-year in June.  This is the fourth consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 8.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 6.5% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow.

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
June 2008 5,748 1,093 19.0% 53,8262
June 2009 9,325 62.2% 3,443 36.9% 38,358 2
June 2010 9,278 -0.5% 3,498 37.7% 41,869 9.2%
June 2011 11,134 20.0% 5,001 44.9% 29,203 -30.3%
June 2012 9,133 -18.0% 4,272 46.8% 19,857 -32.0%
June 2013 8,150 -10.8% 3,055 37.5% 19,541 -1.6%
June 2014 7,239 -11.2% 1,854 25.6% 27,954 43.1%
June 2015 8,273 20.5% 2,005 23.0% 23,377 -16.4%
June 2016 8,986 8.6% 1,875 20.9% 24,898 6.5%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/X80Jrya0w1M/phoenix-real-estate-in-june-sales-up-9.html

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