This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 5.5% year-over-year in May.  This is the third consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in May were up 6.4% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.8% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 5.5% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow.

May Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Inventory YoY
Change
Inventory
May-08 5,6371 1,062 18.8% 54,1611
May-09 9,284 64.7% 3,592 38.7% 39,902 -26.3%
May-10 9,067 -2.3% 3,341 36.8% 41,326 3.6%
May-11 9,811 8.2% 4,523 46.1% 31,661 -23.4%
May-12 8,445 13.5% 3,907 46.3% 20,162 -36.3%
May-13 9,440 11.8% 3,669 38.9% 19,734 -2.1%
May-14 7,442 -21.2% 2,193 29.5% 29,091 47.4%
May-15 8,293 11.4% 1,988 24.0% 24,616 -15.4%
May-16 8,820 6.4% 1,931 21.9% 25,980 5.5%
1 May 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Xzv_jtKasuM/phoenix-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-6.html

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