A couple of years ago – when there was a disappointing jobs report – I called out the people calling it a “disaster”.

Here is my post from 2014: Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

In that post I noted that there were strong employment years with some weak employment months.  Sure enough, 2014 saw strong employment growth of over 3 million jobs.  Some “disaster”!

Other examples: In 1983, there was a month with 308 thousand jobs lost – but it was a strong year for employment gains.  Or 1997, another strong year, with 31 thousand jobs lost in one month.

Job growth has slowed so far in 2016, but I still think we will see over 2 million jobs added this year.

Here is a table of the best years for job growth since 1980 with the worst month of the year (this is after revisions).  Obviously there is a significant amount of volatility month-to-month in the employment report.

Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month
Year Annual (000s) Worst Month (000s)
1984 3,880 128
1994 3,852 200
1983 3,458 -308
1997 3,407 -31
1988 3,242 94
1999 3,179 107
1987 3,153 171
1998 3,047 129
2014 3,015 168
1996 2,825 -19
1993 2,816 -49
2015 2,744 84
2005 2,514 68
1985 2,502 124
2013 2,311 45
1995 2,158 -15
2012 2,149 75
2006 2,092 4
2011 2,087 42
2004 2,042 44
2000 1,951 -47
1989 1,943 40
1986 1,902 -94
20161 1,795 38
12016 is the hiring pace through May.

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/MKP3MaCEXaU/payroll-employment-best-years-worst.html

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