• At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in May, up from 156,000 added in April.
• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 267 thousand initial claims, down from 268 thousand the previous week.
From Tim Duy: Waiting For The Employment Report. A short excerpt:
Two of the last three monthly readings on the core were just above 2 percent annualized, something that will also give confidence to Fed hawks that their inflation forecast will play out (they will assume headline will head in that direction). Compared to a year ago, however, core inflation continues to languish below target.
The Verizon strike likely negatively impacted the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers in the May employment report, so adjust your expectations accordingly. I would pay special attention to the unemployment rate and metrics of underemployment; the Fed would be more inclined to hike rates if progress on these from resumed.
Bottom Line: Nothing here suggests to me that the Fed will soon reject their expectation of a rate hike in the “coming months.”