From Merrill Lynch on April NFP:
Nonfarm payroll growth likely posted a solid 200,000 in April, driven once more by service-providing firms. Of this, government hiring likely contributed 5,000, which is a more modest clip than the 20,000 pop in March. …
We look for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.0%, assuming the participation rate holds steady. However, there is a risk it heads higher, following the recent trend, which could boost the unemployment rate. The participation rate has seen an impressive recovery since September of last year, rising to 63% from 62.4%. A robust labor market has attracted many workers back into the labor market, and it is more likely than not that this trend generally continues in the near term. However, increased labor supply also means delayed wage pressures: we are looking for only 0.2% monthly growth in average hourly earnings. This would leave the yoy growth rate unchanged at 2.3%, though this is still greater than the 2% pace seen earlier in this cycle. …
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 53.4, down from 53.6 in March.
• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 90.4, up from the preliminary reading 89.7.